At the end of December, the U.S. Census Bureau released its findings on the 2010 Census. Some of the findings included that the nation’s population grew to 309 million, up almost 10 percent from 281 million in 2000.
About one-half (13.1 million) of that growth was due to immigration. The rest of the growth was due to births minus deaths. And as the overall population grew, median age increased from 35.3 years to 36.8 years. Baby Boomers (aged 46 to 64 in 2010) began turning 60 at mid-decade and now are at or nearing retirement age. Over the decade, the age group 60 to 64 years grew by 55 percent, gaining nearly six million people.
As the Census numbers played out by age, they also played out geographically. In the 10-year period since the last census, Nevada’s population grew by an incredible 35.1 percent. Other states coming in with double-digit growth include: Utah (24.7 percent); Arizona (24.6 percent); Texas (18.8 percent); Florida (17.6 percent); Colorado (16.8 percent); North Carolina (16.6 percent); South Carolina (13.7 percent); and Washington (13.1 percent).
The fast growth in the past decade isn’t the end of the story for some of these states. When you look more closely at the numbers for Nevada, Arizona and Florida, for example, it is interesting to note that the majority of the growth came between the years of 2000 and 2005, but the rate has slowed substantially in recent years. This muted growth in the last five years when compared to the first five years of the decade is understandable when you consider how hard these three states were hit in the recent recession with rising unemployment and elevated foreclosure activity. According to TransUnion’s Trend Data, one in five consumers that had a mortgage loan in the state of Florida were at least 60 days delinquent on the mortgage payment, a precursor to foreclosure.
While a great majority of the conversation around the census results will center on U.S. House of Representative seats that will be lost or gained and re-districting on the state level, from a healthcare perspective our conversation should be different. Our conversations should be centered on how future healthcare organizations are going to adapt and effectively manage the healthcare needs of the population that is flowing in and out of their communities.
From both a payer and provider point of view, these statistics – both geographically and by age group - should be dissected a thousand different ways to understand how it can affect your operations – and it will affect them. Financial and organizational stressors will mount for healthcare delivery systems that are ill prepared. Provider and payer networks need to be designed to meet the changing needs of an aging population and the shifts in resources from the traditional “rust-belt” states to the “sun-belt” ones.
Healthcare provider and payer networks will be tested immediately. The demands for access to care will be unprecedented. Care coordination amongst primary care and specialist physicians will be a prerequisite. Without coordination, single points of failure will result in poor access, higher costs and lower quality.
This phenomenon is nothing new. Healthcare organizations have seen this coming for years. Forward thinking organizations have realigned their networks and facilities to meet the demands of an aging population. For those who have not planned accordingly, foundational issues in their delivery system will certainly crack under the immense pressures of the Baby Boomer population. Let’s hope your organization has planned accordingly!
Jim Bohnsack is Vice President of TransUnion Healthcare.