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Andy Slavitt: GOP healthcare bill built on 'faulty' math

The former head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services breaks down problem he sees with bill in 25-part Twitter thread.
By Henry Powderly

Both supporters and opponents of the just-released Republican plan to replace the Affordable Care Act are taking to social media to share their thoughts about the proposed bill. 

[Also: Republicans roll back Medicaid expansion, pitch tax credits in bill to replace the Affordable Care Act]

Chief among them is former Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Acting Admin Andy Slavitt, who took to Twitter Monday night to post a 25-part tweetstorm about the bill.

Here is that thread:

Reviewing #ACA replacement bill w number of experts. Later 2night, I will tweet out my top observations from bill.

Follow if interested.

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

Spent evening talking to a number of people about policy and politics of AHCA, #ACA replacement bill. 1

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

Some things are fairly obvious. But policy analysts going to work on the bill are finding a lot of implications that don't meet the eye. 2

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

The headlines are all wrong, focusing on how similar/different insurance rules are 2 #ACA. The changes aren't good, but not the big story. 3

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

True headline 1: the bill is basically a tax cut ($600 billion) funded by gutting Medicaid. 4

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

The tax cuts r 4 wealthy, insurance cos, pharma, tanning sals, med device. Funding cuts from low income, seniors & kids. W permanent caps. 5

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

Headline 2 is also fairly obvious. AHCA violates all President's commitments. Covers fewer, takes away protections, ⬆️ prems & deductibles.6

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

It basically takes all the things Rs complained about & makes them worse. But the affordability problems have an even worse impact. 6

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

Here r some of the affordability issues. Notice they hit ppl under 250% of FPL & > 55 hardest. Regressive but it leads to something worse. 8 pic.twitter.com/VE7DuVyCJn

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

Headline 3: The math for AHCA is faulty. It leads to bad risk & a death spiral which means pre-ex protections are likely on paper only. 9

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

Analysts are very clear on this point so worth explaining. It has to do with how tax credits are designed. 10

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

First, tax credits vary by age, not income. For low income & seniors, makes premiums unaffordable. Unless you're very sick, you can't pay.11

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

Second, tax credits don't vary by region. Premiums unaffordable in places like Alaska, except to very sick. 12

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

As premiums increase, unlike in ACA, in AHCA tax credits don't rise. So lower income slowly drop out. Increases are pegged to CPI. 13

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

In a nutshell, over time, low income can't afford their premiums unless they're sick. Compounded by no help w deducts, co-pays. 14

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

And when the ind mandate goes away, premiums are estimated to increase 25%. And when employer mandate goes away, fewer employers cover. 15

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

Headline 4: Less wonky, more marketing. Evidence of focus groups promote popular features, at expense of reality on deeper reading. 15

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

For example, unpopular high risk pools out but money in block grant is there. Also expansion cuts, essential benefits delayed until '20. 16

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

I admit I can't number my Tweets. 18

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

The biggest marketing gimmick is to release it, or mark it up, or potentially even vote on it without a CBO score. 18

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

Headline 5: Bad for Medicare. Reduces life of Trust Fund with the giant tax cuts. I believe this is done to force more draconian cuts. 19

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

Headline 6: Bad for public health. Cuts prevention benefits, cuts tanning salon tax break, defunds Planned Parenthood. Costs lives and $. 20

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

I'm wrapping up now. So what's the benefit? It doesn't solve the "sky is falling crisis" message. It doesn't cover more or reduce costs. 21

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

But, AHCA accomplishes this: if healthy & can save, you win. If you want entitlement reform, cuts Medicaid & puts Medicare into a crisis.22

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

This is a telling story. Price, per 1 Gov, told him he would "back into" size of the Medicaid cuts based on what's needed at Fed level. 23

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

So broad strokes, cuts spending 7 cuts taxes while sending individual insurance market, millions of ppl into tailspin w cheap packaging, 24

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

That makes this a terrible vote to ask ppl to take before considering the awful politics. No thanks. Done/25

-- Andy Slavitt (@ASlavitt) March 7, 2017

Twitter: @HenryPowderly
Contact the author: henry.powderly@himssmedia.com