ORLANDO -- The future's not set, unless you're talking about healthcare.
In his keynote address Tuesday at the Healthcare Financial Management Association's 2015 Annual Institute, futurist Ian Morrison confirmed what everybody at the event already knew: The pursuit of value is transforming healthcare now and into the future.
The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid has already pledged to convert more payments to value in the next few years, while commercial insurers are following suit, issuing more contracts that bundle payments.
The real issue is cost.
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"Every health system around the world sucks in its own unique way," joked Morrison. "But I would submit we probably have among the worst value because we spend so much more."
Value is the aggregate of quality and costs, so even if care improves, better value can only come as a result of cost control, he said.
Morrison said he expects the industry to find a medium between the creation of large accountable care networks that eventually level the system and changes due to market pressures from consumers who are spending out-of-pocket through high-deductibles, copays and premiums.
In reality, the growth rate for healthcare costs is already falling in the industry. In fact, a recent report by PricewaterhouseCooper expects the rate of growth to fall to 6.5 percent in 2016, down from 6.8 percent growth in 2015. A good reason is because so much of that cost has shifted to the patient. So much, that they really have become consumers of medical treatment, and not just patients.
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"They don't see the value," Morrison said, which is a major problem.
The value challenge will also increase as aging Baby Boomers begin to require more care, which in a fee-for-service model would be a boon to the industry.
"As hospitals migrate toward risk they are going to have to deal differently," Morrison said.
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Morrison said he expects more consolidation in the health industry, especially among smaller rural hospitals that are already starting to fail as the industry changes.
"I don't see rural hospitals going away, they are needed in their communities. They'll be repurposed."
Morrison also expects employers to shift to narrow networks to keep their own costs in check.
"There's good news here," he said. "There's actually a very good group of employers I've been in touch with who want to have direct engagement with large care organizations."
Employers are also putting more tools for health management, such as wellness programs, in the hands of consumers, to help keep costs down and ultimately affect value, he said.
Twitter: @HenryPowderly