While the gubernatorial primary in the state of Washington won’t be held for nearly three months, most political observers say it is virtually assured who the candidates will be.
For the Democrats, seven-term U.S. Congressman Jay Inslee threw his hat into the ring nearly a year ago for the Governor’s Mansion, a mere two weeks after two-term Democratic Governor Christine Gregoire announced she would not seek a reelection. Inslee resigned his seat in the House in March to focus his efforts full-time on the upcoming election, and was a vocal and visible supporter of health reform during the debate two years ago as a member of the U.S House of Representatives.
The presumptive Republican candidate is Rob McKenna, currently serving his second term as Washington State Attorney General. McKenna, who won reelection in 2008 with 59 percent of the vote, also declared his candidacy last June and, like Inslee, his early declaration has essentially thwarted the entrance of other significant Republicans, due to his demonstrated statewide popularity.
McKenna’s second term has been marked by a spat with Gregoire over his decision to sign onto the lawsuit brought by 28 attorneys general to overturn the Individual Mandate requiring all Americans to purchase health insurance and the broad expansion of Medicaid contained in the Affordable Care Act.
While Washington is widely considered a “blue” state – both chambers of the state legislature are controlled by Democrats – political observers see the upcoming election as providing Republicans with a solid chance of winning the gubernatorial election for the first time in 32 years.
“It’s an interesting election year,” noted Benton Strong, communications director for the Washington State Democratic Party. “It is going to be close financially. It is going to be close at the polls. Everything has shown that.”
Early opinion surveys in the state confirms this. A SurveyUSA poll of registered Washington voters conducted last week shows the two candidates in a virtual dead-heat: 40 percent favoring McKenna and 38 percent indicating support for Inslee, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percent. The opportunity for both candidates lies in the large number – 22 percent – of registered voters who remain undecided.
While healthcare is likely to play some role in the outcome of November’s election, members of both parties agree it is not at the top of the list of most important issues.
“Healthcare is about number six of the top priorities of voters this year,” said Kirby Wilbur, a former Seattle-area conservative radio talk show host and Chairman of the Washington State Republican Party. “They are talking about the economy, jobs and education has become a big issue.”
That said, Wilbur, who nearly 20 years ago organized a raucous Seattle protest that shouted down former First Lady Hillary Clinton’s speech in support of the Clinton’s version of health reform –dubbed by opponents as “Hillarycare” – thinks McKenna’s participation in the challenge to the individual mandate will allow opponents to paint him as “uncaring and against any kind of health reform.”
This tack is exemplified in a recent lawsuit filed against McKenna by a dozens of women who contend that his participation in the federal lawsuit seeking to overturn the Affordable Care Act threatens the ability of women to get access to comprehensive health coverage.
Many see the Mackey vs. McKenna lawsuit as politically motivated and McKenna’s campaign manager Randy Pepple told the Associated Press it was nothing more than an attempt to change topics in the campaign away from Inslee’s “lack of solutions for solving the problems facing Washington state.”
At a press conference announcing the lawsuit on May 3, lead plaintiff Melissa Mackey, bristled at the notion the lawsuit was political ploy. “I didn't get cancer for political reasons. I just haven't done 20 months of treatment for a governor's race,” she said. “I want to be treated fairly…I don't care who's governor.”
If there is vulnerability on healthcare for McKenna it appears it could be here. This despite the fact that McKenna has repeatedly said his participation in the federal lawsuit is solely based on his view that the individual mandate contained in the health reform law is unconstitutional. Further, McKenna has said he supports a number of the provisions on the Affordable Care Act including preventing insurers from denying coverage due to pre-existing conditions and allowing adult children to stay on their parents’ employer-sponsored health insurance plans up to the age of 26.
His opponents argue he is trying to play it both ways.
“[McKenna] maintains that the challenge to the individual mandate will not overturn the entire law,” said Mike Kreidler the state’s insurance commissioner in a statement responding to the filing of Mackey vs. McKenna. “The problem is that the case he joined seeks to do exactly that: throw out the entire law.”
Wilbur isn’t surprised by this opposition and contends McKenna is more of a middle of the road moderate, like many of the “Reagan Republicans” in the state. His support of the federal lawsuit may have helped his cause among more conservative elements of his party, however.
“What Rob did in his stance against that individual mandate solidified his support among the base which is slightly to the right of where Rob is,” Wilbur noted. “I don’t think it was designed to do this, but it has preempted any substantive primary challenge of anyone saying he is too moderate.”
Some see more political motivation in this than Wilbur is crediting.
“I think political folks would say that he did this to appeal to more conservative voters,” Strong said. “What we would say is we think he is a more right leaning conservative. He argues he is a moderate, but this is not the only issue where he plays farther to the right.”
It seems unclear whether this would necessarily be a hindrance or a benefit for McKenna in the November election.
Inslee, while in Congress was not simply along for the ride on ACA. He often took a leading role in sponsoring legislation in support of such things as the creation of accountable care organizations and on more than one occasion went before the cameras to promote health reform.
Yet according to the same SurveyUSA poll showing the candidates at a dead heat, 46 percent of Washingtonians are opposed to the health reform law and 39 percent support it. The figures swing even more in McKenna’s favor when it comes to the individual mandate with a majority of registered voters – 56 percent – saying they oppose the individual mandate.
“It is not as unpopular here as it is in Virginia, Texas or some other states, but this state is a bit more liberal than other states,” said Kirby.
Despite his strong support for the Affordable Care Act, the Inslee campaign is likely to spend markedly more time on economic and other issues.
Insless “has a strong voice for Washington state that includes clean energy and clenar energy jobs,” Strong noted. “He has a strong vision, strong jobs package, great view on education and a realistic views of the state’s financial position because we are still operating under a tight budget.”
But that won’t be how Republicans want Inslee perceived come November.
“If I were [McKenna], what I would do is to paint [Inslee] as a big-government liberal, who wants the government to control more and more of your life and that the healthcare system he is advocating isn’t efficient, won’t work and that reform is needed, but not the reforms he supports like the individual mandate,”
Kirby continued. “I would point out there are other reforms we can enact in the state and I think [McKenna] will do that.
“The base are excited by Rob, since they see [his opposition to the individual mandate] as a stance of courage and principal. They want that to reward him for that and want this in their political leadership.”