RALEIGH, NC – The numbers, they say, don’t lie. But can they be used to predict?
Predictive modeling, the concept of using data to spot patterns, has been used in fields as diverse as workers’ compensation and sailing. Now it’s making inroads in healthcare – particularly in home-based healthcare – and Misys Healthcare is looking to capitalize on that trend.
Last month the Raleigh, N.C.-based clinical products and Web-based technology vendor announced a strategic alliance with OCS, Inc., which collects, analyzes and interprets healthcare information. The deal will allow Misys to use OCS’ predictive modeling tools in its Misys Homecare software solution, currently in use in about 650 home healthcare agencies.
Faced with expensive equipment, a shortage of skilled nurses and an increase in the elderly population, home healthcare providers “want to be sure you allocate the right resources,” said Jeneane Brian, clinical strategy executive for Misys Healthcare. “It’s been determined that (predictive modeling) is a statistically reliable tool … that can spot patterns.”
According to Brian, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has been collecting data on home-based healthcare patients since 1999, when it mandated that all certified home healthcare agencies fill out 100-page questionnaires for each patient. The alliance with OCS allows Misys access to that database of answers, and makes use of OCS’ analytical algorithms to determine when a new patient might be in need of care.
Mary Oakes, director of sales and business strategy for OCS, said home healthcare agencies can use predictive modeling to identify patients who, according to trends of patients with similar symptoms, will most likely need more healthcare services in the near future. The Misys-OCS solution, she added, provides “predictive modeling at point-of-care real-time,” allowing home healthcare providers to act quickly and prevent future – and more costly – medical crises before they happen.
According to Bill Bassett, senior director of marketing strategy and corporate development for OCS, the financial benefits are numerous. Home-based healthcare costs about $45 to $55 per day, while a hospital visit averages out to about $2,000 a day. In addition, payers can use predictive modeling to classify risk levels for patients.
Brian said predictive modeling can be used to chart 12 documented adverse outcomes in home healthcare. For now, Misys will focus on two outcomes – hospitalization and emergent care – but will eventually expand to other markers, like infections and vulnerability to pressure sores.
Using OCS’ technology, Misys Homecare’s solution creates color-coded risk assessments that are displayed in a portal for clinical managers, who then alert home healthcare providers. Under a three-year plan adopted by Misys, Brian said, the technology will expand to include clinical support messages and, eventually, a prepopulated care plan, offering guidance and tools that the particular agency defines as care standards.
OCS, meanwhile, isn’t resting on its laurels. On July 16, the company announced that it has been selected as a benchmarking solutions partner for Patient Care Technologies, Inc., an Atlanta-based provider of integrated home care, hospice, telehealth and private duty software.