The number of people aged 23 to 26 -- primarily women -- who became registered nurses increased by 62 percent from 2002 to 2009, according to a new study conducted by researchers from the RAND Corporation, Vanderbilt University and Dartmouth College. That growth pattern could ease concern about an impending nursing shortage in the United States.
The researchers, who published their findings in the December edition of Health Affairs, project that the “new entering cohorts [will] become the largest group of nurses ever observed.” The trend reverses a course first observed in the early 1980s when fewer young women entered the nursing profession as other career opportunities expanded.
A decade ago researchers predicted that the United States could face a shortage of 400,000 registered nurses by 2020. Between 1983 and 1998 the proportion of the registered nurse workforce under age 30 dropped from 30 percent to 12 percent, the study report stated, while the average age of working nurses increased from age 37 to 42.
Researchers examined information about the employment of registered nurses from 1973 to 2009 from the Current Population Survey and the American Community Survey, two large surveys sponsored by the U.S. government. They also incorporated information from the U.S. Census Bureau.
The study found that the number of registered nurses aged 23 to 26 peaked at more than 190,000 in 1979. It fell to fewer than 110,000 by 1991 and remained low throughout the following decade. However, the number of registered nurses aged 23 to 26 climbed from 102,000 in 2002 to 165,000 by 2009.
If the number of people entering nursing continues to grow at current levels, researchers predict that by 2030 there would be enough registered nurses to fully meet the nation's needs. Nonetheless, if that entry flattens out, the workforce would barely keep pace with population growth – and would likely result in continued shortages.
"These findings were a real surprise and are a very positive development for the future healthcare workforce in the United States," said David Auerbach, the study’s lead author and an economist at RAND.
"Compared to where nursing supply was just a few years ago, the change is just incredible."
The researchers noted that several major initiatives helped to increase interest in nursing careers during the recent surge. At the same time, nursing programs expanded enrollment and allowed students to get training on an accelerated schedule.
Frank Irving is editor of PhysBizTech, a multi-platform online publication covering business and technology issues for small and medium-sized practices. Click here to subscribe.