Insurers that have submitted applications to sell exchange plans are currently waiting, hoping regulators will approve their premiums and that consumers will find them affordable, in what will be a more crowded marketplace.
Early data from states that have published rate filings suggest that insurers are trying to keep their premiums low, not too much higher than last year, with only a few states seeing double digit percentage increases.
"As insurers experience with exchanges grows, we expect the range of plan premiums to narrow," said Matt Eyles, executive vice president at Avalere Health, which has analyzed individual exchange plan rate proposals in nine states.
That's only happening to a small extent, in part because premium applications were due in June, halfway or less into the first year of exchange plans, leaving little member utilization data to use, Eyles said.
Among the nine states studied -- Connecticut, Indiana, Maryland, Maine, Oregon, Rhode Island, Virginia, Vermont and Washington -- average premiums for silver plans at the 40-year-old age band will increase 8 percent over last year, from $324 to $350, if approved by regulators.
Rhode Island's three exchange insurers are proposing what are on average the smallest premium increases, just 2.5 percent, while Indiana's nine insurers are seeking the highest, 16 percent.
Although, in Oregon, where 10 insurers are vying in the exchange, average premiums will actually decrease over last year's, by 1.4 percent.
There is also a fair amount of variation in premiums within states and that's increased since last year, according to Avalere's analysis.. In Indiana, the lowest-priced silver plan has premiums of $211, while the highest-priced silver plan has premiums at $587.
(Source: Avalere Health)
Does this suggest some insurers are anticipating at least a bit of demand for the type of broad provider networks widely available in the pre-health reform market, or that some insurers are viewing their competitors low premiums as unsustainable? After tax credits, of course, even the highest premiums will be much lower for most of consumers.