The number of applications submitted for coverage through the health insurance exchanges has to date exceeded enrollment in the Medicare Part D prescription drug program for seniors during its launch, according to an analysis from Avalere Health.
Using Medicare Part D as an historical benchmark, only 10 percent of voluntary Part D enrollees in stand-alone prescription drug plans had signed up as of December 2005, one month before coverage first took effect.
If the Part D enrollment experience were applied to the exchanges, fewer than 700,000 people would be expected to enroll in exchange coverage by Nov. 15, 2013, the analysis found.
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services said last week that 700,000 individuals had submitted applications for exchange coverage.
However, it is unknown what part of the 700,000 applicants will complete their purchase and enroll in a plan.
Healthcare.gov has been beset with numerous technical problems on its backend and frontend. Jeffrey Zients, a former performance official in the Office of Management and Budget and appointed by the Obama to fix the system, anticipates that the portal and its numerous connections will work smoothly by Dec. 1. State exchanges have fared much better overall.
"People are slow to purchase coverage when new programs begin, and if past programs are any guide, we expect most exchange participants will wait until after January 2014 to enroll," said Caroline Pearson, Avalere vice president, in a media release. "This suggests that if early website problems are resolved before the end of the year, they should not meaningfully decrease the size of these new exchange markets."
Two-thirds of Medicare beneficiaries who voluntarily enrolled in a stand-alone Part D plan during the initial enrollment period signed up after coverage began on Jan. 1, 2006. And 22 percent of Part D enrollees signed up in the final month of open enrollment.
This hints at the possibility that nearly 1.6 million people might wait until March to enroll in an exchange plan, Avalere analysts said.
The differences in the two programs might explain the fact that exchange applications are coming in more rapidly than Part D, despite technical glitches, said Matt Eyles, Avalere executive vice president, in the release."
Many people excluded from the market historically and those who are being heavily subsidized have every incentive to sign up early for exchange plans," he said, adding that Medicare beneficiaries already had health insurance and were only looking to add drug coverage.
Avalere studied monthly enrollment numbers for individuals who voluntarily enrolled in Medicare stand-alone prescription drug plans and lined up the milestones of the Part D initial open enrollment period with those of the exchanges. Then the analysts applied the path of voluntary enrollment in Part D to the May 2013 Congressional Budget Office estimate of 7 million total exchange enrollees for 2014.
Medicare Part D open enrollment ran from Nov. 15, 2005, to May 15, 2006. Exchange open enrollment runs from Oct. 1 to March 31, 2014.