The stem cell industry is expected to thrive in the United States now that President Barack Obama has lifted the federal funding restrictions on stem cell research, according to a new report.
According to analysts at market research publisher Kalorama Information, there could be a $500 million world market for stem cell therapies by 2013, now that the United States can participate in development.
Kalorama notes in "Stem Cell Therapeutics Markets" that under a best case scenario where therapies are successful, regulatory acceptance is expedient and insurers cover new therapies, the market could grow to more than 30 times its estimated size of $16.4 million in 2008.
"Since there are just a few products in this area now, our analysts have used a bottom-up model to make forecasts, based on disease incidence and a gradual replacement of current therapies," said Bruce Carlson, publisher for Kalorama Information. "In the past, analysts have utilized models like this to predict monoclonal antibody and cancer vaccine markets, before viable products appeared."
Kalorama estimates that half of stem cell therapeutics revenue will be in cardiovascular disease, with lung disease, cancer and diabetes treatments making up most of the rest.
The previous lack of funding for basic research, compared with the technological challenges that must be overcome, resulted in very limited approvals of new drug therapies that involve stem cells, despite strong potential, said Carlson.
As of the end of 2007, there were no approved treatments or human trials using embryonic stem cells in the United States. Any existing therapies were typically in the form of stem cell transplants using either bone marrow or blood stem cells for oncological conditions.
"This situation has allowed other countries to take the lead," said Carlson. "The U.K. is responsible for many of the advances in stem cell technology, and both China and Singapore, with some of the most unrestrictive embryonic stem cell research policies in the world, have emerged in this area."
Carlson said things should change with the new federal policies. "America's gain may be Europe and Asia's loss," he said, since money from American companies has been funding many projects abroad, some of which will likely relocate.
Still, the new report predicts that – despite a short drop in European and Asian projects – the United States. is the world's largest healthcare market, which should alleviate any loss in global revenues.