An analysis from Avalere Health shows that in nine states the second-lowest cost "Silver" premiums appear to be lower than what the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated for 2016.
These second-lowest cost Silver premiums will be used to set federal premium subsidies on the health insurance exchanges.
If premiums are lower than was projected by CBO, federal costs for per-person subsidies may be lower than expected--and save the federal government money.
Premiums for the Silver plans for a 40-year-old nonsmoker will range from a low of $205 in one region in Oregon to a high of $413 in another region in Vermont, Avalere said in a recent news release about the analysis.
CBO previously projected nationwide the average monthly premium for the second-lowest cost Silver plan would be $433, or $5,200 per year for an individual.
"The initial data suggest that competition in exchanges is working to lower premiums, which will benefit nonsubsidized enrollees and the federal government," says Caroline Pearson, Avalere Health vice president, in the release.
Based on current data, all 2014 rates are below the CBO 2016 premium estimate. Rates may not rise dramatically between 2014 and 2016 because annual premium increases over 10 percent will be subject to rate review. Sicker individuals who are eligible for exchange subsidies will likely enroll first, the analysis said. Healthier enrollees will join gradually as awareness of exchanges grows and individual mandate penalties increase.
"However, some plans may strategically be pricing in 2014 low to attract enrollment," the analysts noted.
While premiums appear favorable compared to CBO estimates, rates for young, healthy individuals will still be higher than what is currently available in the individual market, the analysis said.
The nine states with publicly available information represent a cross section of geography and state size, including two with federally-facilitated exchanges. Besides Oregon and Vermont, the states were California, Colorado, Connecticut, Ohio, Rhode Island, Virginia and Washington. The analysis is based on preliminary rate filings for nonsmoking 40-year-old individuals seeking Silver plan coverage through an exchange.