A new study released in the November/December issue of Health Affairs suggests that the aging American population may strain employer-based health insurance.
According to researchers Patricia Keenan, David Cutler and Michael Chernew, even if the group coverage population remains healthy, coverage costs may increase as the average age of this population rises.
“These changes raise questions about the private health care system’s ability to pool health risks,” Keenan said. “Population aging could interact with rising premiums and place additional pressure on an already strained employment-based health insurance system.”
In the Health Affairs paper, titled “The Graying of Group Health Insurance,” the researchers examined declines in employer-based group health insurance by income and age. They found that younger individuals and lower-income working families were dropping proportionally out of the insurance pool, leaving relatively more higher-income, middle-aged beneficiaries.
Keenan said she is aware of the ongoing, somewhat heated debate on the future of private health insurance and offers the results of her study as additional factors to consider in the big picture.
“What we’re really doing is raising a question rather than bringing a firm conclusion,” Keenan said. “It’s a case where reasonable people can disagree. Are we already in a system that’s spiraling downward? I’m not sure we can say that with any certainty now.”