In most states, the difference between premium rates for young and old members is already largely within the 3:1 ratio set by the Affordable Care Act, according to a new study by the consumer website Health Pocket.
After analyzing 3,629 individual and family health plans for people ages 23, 30 and 63, Health Pocket found that premiums already increase an average of 260 percent for 63-year-olds compared to 23-year-olds, a difference that's well within the 300 percent limit required by the new age rating rules.
Although that's not to say premiums won't be rising for many people, particularly the young and healthy, the study noted.
As Health Pocket previously found, a majority of existing individual and family plans need to significantly expand benefit offerings to meet essential health benefit requirements, which are likely to require higher premiums. Another driver of higher premiums, the study noted, will be the entrance of people with existing health conditions, who "may pay less than they do currently while the healthy may pay more."
But the ACA's new age rating rules are "unlikely to cause significant premium increases" by themselves, Health Pocket said, since by and large they're basically being applied already.
The study did find 14 states had average age-based increases higher than the ACA's 3:1 ratio, and in Delaware, Oregon, Alaska and Wyoming, 63-year-old residents had average premiums between 350 percent and 382 percent higher than average premiums quoted for 23-year-olds.
Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine and New Jersey, meanwhile, all had average premium differences below 100 percent between 63-year-olds and 23-year-olds.
The study also found some significant differences in premium variations based on gender, another rating practice that will be limited under the ACA. Non-smoking 23-year-old women were quoted average monthly premiums of $179 a month, compared to $145 for 23-year-old non-smoking men.
The difference was similar between men and women up to age 30 -- although it fell with age. Non-smoking 63-year-old men averaged premiums 317 percent higher than 23 year-old nonsmoking men, while nonsmoking 63-year-old women were quoted average premiums only 203 percent higher than 23 year-old nonsmoking women.
While the current gender-based differences are explained either by actuarial justifications or philosophical arguments – depending on the source – the study said, the "curious switch" over time "may be due to insurers associating higher healthcare costs to women between ages 19 and age 55. At this age women are past childbearing years and the associated hospitalization costs for mother and child."