The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services recent 10-year projection of national health expenditures includes retail spending on prescription drugs, but a more complete picture of pharma spending would include the nonretail segment.
If we can identify the "underlying path" of health spending, we can do a better job of predicting the future from a noisy history. This underlying path can also serve as the curve to be monitored for evidence of any "bend."
The latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimate that spending for healthcare services jumped by about $50 billion in the first quarter of 2014 compared to fourth quarter of 2013. But don't listen to those who say we are on track for a 10 percent rise in health spending over the full year.
The historical growth in health spending as a share of GDP is well-documented and increasingly well-known, having increased from about 6 percent in 1965 to 18 percent in 2012. We know this share will eventually level off - but where?